Dear Deeply Readers,

Welcome to the archives of Syria Deeply. While we paused regular publication of the site on May 15, 2018, and transitioned some of our coverage to Peacebuilding Deeply, we are happy to serve as an ongoing public resource on the Syrian conflict. We hope you’ll enjoy the reporting and analysis that was produced by our dedicated community of editors contributors.

We continue to produce events and special projects while we explore where the on-site journalism goes next. If you’d like to reach us with feedback or ideas for collaboration you can do so at [email protected].

BROWSE THE SYRIA DEEPLY ARCHIVES

Eye On the Battle: ISIS Reclaims Raqqa But Loses Ground in Aleppo

Earlier this month, rebel fighting groups led by the Islamic Front (IF) battled the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) in Raqqa, the first Syrian city to come under extremist control. The clash quickly spread to neighboring Aleppo and Idlib province.

Written by Karen Leigh Published on Read time Approx. 2 minutes

But as diplomats huddled in Switzerland, ISIS was reclaiming its territory in Raqqa and attempting to stop the Islamic Front takeover of Aleppo. We asked Noah Bonsey, senior Syria researcher at the International Crisis Group, to explain the current situation on the ground.

Syria Deeply: What is the current balance of power between ISIS and the IF?

Noah Bonsey: It helps to look at the whole northern Syrian scene at once, starting with the city of Aleppo as a reference point. Isis has been gaining strength and expanding its control east of the city, including the eastern Aleppo countryside and in Raqqa province. ISIS has taken complete control of the city of Raqqa and now are the unrivaled dominant force in the province.

But then west of Aleppo city we have seen the opposite. In Aleppo’s western countryside and in Idlib province, ISIS’s opponents — the Islamic Front, the Syrian Revolutionaries Front and Jaish al-Mujahideen — have driven ISIS out of most of that area.  We can expect ISIS to continue to mount attacks, including through suicide car bombs, but the rebels have established a clear upper hand to the west.

The key battleground is north of Aleppo, in the northern outskirts and in towns between Aleppo and the Turkish border. This area is crucial because of the rebel supply line from the Turkish border to Aleppo. ISIS’s opponents have reportedly surrounded the ISIS-held town of Azaz near the Turkish border and made gains further south in ISIS pockets just outside the city. But we can expect ISIS to fight fiercely for these areas, and the fact that they have consolidated their hold to the east will presumably allow them to send reinforcements.

SD: Why the disparity between Raqqa and Aleppo? Why was ISIS able to reassert control in one city and not the other?

NB: ISIS focused first on taking advantage of, and securing, its comparative advantages lying east of Aleppo. They draw strength from the east, where oil and gas facilities under their control provide useful income and where their arc of influence expands through Deir al-Zour and into Iraq, where their forces have grown stronger and bolder in recent months. West of Aleppo they are weaker: further removed from their resources and strategic depth. Also it appears that cooperation among ISIS’s opponents there has improved of late.

I think the area north of Aleppo will remain the center of clashes, and a tough fight.  If present trends continue, it seems unlikely that either side will gain ground any time soon in the other’s area of strength—i.e. we can expect ISIS to remain dominant in Raqqa, and for its opponents to maintain the upper hand in Idlib.

SD: What do you expect to see in the next few weeks?

NB: I think the area north of Aleppo will remain the center of clashes, and a tough fight.  If present trends continue, it seems unlikely that either side will gain ground any time soon in the other’s area of strength—i.e. we can expect ISIS to remain dominant in Raqqa, and for its opponents to maintain the upper hand in Idlib.

Republish this article

Our mission is to empower stakeholders and the wider public with high quality information, insights, and analysis on critical global issues. To help achieve this, we encourage you to republish the text of any article that contains a Republish button on your own news outlet.

By copying the HTML below, you agree to adhere to our republishing guidelines.

By copying the HTML below, you agree to adhere to our republishing guidelines. Click to expand

  1. In republishing any of our articles:

    Ensure that you include a line of our HTML tracking code on every article you republish. This is a lightweight, efficient way for us to see the number of page views of each specific article published on our partners’ websites. This does not affect page layout, nor does it provide any information about your users, other web pages on your site, or any further data. By copying and pasting the HTML code in the box below, the tracking code is automatically included.

    If, for any reason, you do not copy the code prepared for you, you must paste this code snippet into the end of the article in your CMS: 

    <img src="http://ping.newsdeeply.com/pixel.gif?key=99289&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsdeeply.com%2Fsyria%2Farticles%2F2014%2F01%2F29%2Feye-on-the-battle-isis-reclaims-raqqa-but-loses-ground-in-aleppo" alt="" />

  2. Adhere to the guidelines below:
    • Edit our stories only to reflect references to time (e.g. "today" to "yesterday"), location (e.g. "New York" to "here") or editorial style; do not edit the wording of our articles.
    • Include all the links within the story.
    • Credit our authors and partner institutions — ideally in the byline. We prefer “Author Name, Institution”
    • Note at the top and/or bottom of the story that it originally appeared on Syria Deeply. This note should include a direct link to the original article and a sentence that offers the reader the opportunity to join the Syria’s mailing list. Our recommended example is:
      • This should read : “This article originally appeared on Syria Deeply. You can find the original here. For important news about the war in Syria, you can sign up to the Syria email list.”
    • Do not republish a photo without our written permission. Some sources don't allow their images to be republished without permission.
    • Do not translate a story into another language without our written permission.
    • We often republish pieces from our partners. If you want to republish a partner’s story, you must credit the original partner and include a “via News Deeply” link.
    • Note that News Deeply considers the publication date to be the date marked on the story, and is not responsible for any content that you choose to repost.
    • After republication on the partner website, if you make an accompanying post on social media referencing the republished article, you must include the relevant Deeply social media handle in such post. For example, (i) for Twitter posts this means adding the appropriate @Deeply tag such as @SyriaDeeply, @WaterDeeply, or @WomensGirlsHub and (ii) for Facebook this means tagging the appropriate Deeply page in your Facebook post.
    • News Deeply material may not to be provided, in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, to third parties or affiliates for redistribution through those entities, unless you have received prior written approval from News Deeply.
    • You may not automatically or systematically republish any material from our sites; all stories must be chosen individually for republishing.
    • You may not sell our content or republish it for commercial purposes without our prior written consent.
    • We reserve the right to request that any partner ceases republication of our content, including but not limited to if the guidelines listed above not being followed.
    • If you have any questions or concerns please contact [email protected]

Suggest your story or issue.

Send

Share Your Story.

Have a story idea? Interested in adding your voice to our growing community?

Learn more