With every passing day, the group grows stronger, allowing al-Qaida to develop a new safe haven in the heart of the Arab world even as its primary sanctuaries absorb lethal blows.
Preventing this from happening is an American national interest the current administration is inclined to shirk.
As the peaceful demonstrations that spawned the Syrian revolution gave way to armed skirmishes, al-Qaida saw an opportunity to insert itself into a new conflict. Its Iraqi affiliate sent operatives to establish an infrastructure there. Soon, al-Nusra was launching suicide attacks in the heart of Damascus. Over time, the group perfected more conventional techniques such as ambushes and assaults. Today, the organization is the most effective fighting force among the rebel groups seeking to topple President Bashar al-Assad.
Though al-Nusra is fighting in a localized conflict, it has drawn combatants from all over the Islamic world. Martyrdom notices posted to jihadist forums indicate that its largest foreign contingents come from Libya, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia. While some fought in conflicts ranging from Afghanistan to Iraq, for others it is their first foray into Jihad, Inc.
Though Syrians have proved receptive to the group’s message, it has not been the organization’s ideology that is drawing it admirers. Rather, the failure of the nationalist Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the reluctance of the international community to end the country’s nightmare have bolstered al-Nusra’s appeal. The FSA’s campaign to overthrow Assad has been derailed by its abuses ranging from extortion and theft to tearing out the vital organs of regime soldiers on video.
In contrast, Jabhat al-Nusra has embraced Mao Zedong’s belief that rebels need to rely on a sympathetic local population to defeat a much stronger regime army. To this end, the organization exudes discipline, demonstrates bravery in battle and strives to apply justice in a society ravaged by war. To this potent brew, the organization adds a social welfare network far more efficient and responsive than those operated by FSA units.
But if Jabhat al-Nusra is looking forward to carving out a sphere of influence in the new Syria, it is equally glancing in its rearview mirror to survey the shattered dreams it left behind.
The organization has learned from the mistakes its Iraqi affiliate committed during the U.S. occupation. It has shunned targeting civilian areas where attacks produce mass casualties. It has avoided demonizing the ruling Alawite sect as heretics whose blood is licit. The organization has not imposed al-Qaida’s rigid legal code that prescribes corporal punishment in areas it controls.
For these reasons, it has developed into a potent fighting force the West can no longer avoid. With every passing day, the organization makes further inroads that will be difficult to reverse. It has taken over state infrastructure, controls key roads and possesses sophisticated weaponry.
Jabhat al-Nusra is building a new al-Qaida haven even as its other sanctuaries are in the crosshairs. Its core leadership in Pakistan is decimated, its Yemeni affiliate is on the run, and its North African and Iraqi branches are in disarray. But Washington is content to watch from the sidelines as the organization establishes a new presence in the heart of the Arab world. Though most U.S. officials are eager to throw their hat in the ring, a reluctant White House has blocked the move.
In a war where the objective has never been the fall of the regime, al-Nusra is preparing for the day after. A new al-Qaida base in the Levant is highly strategic, used to destabilize American allies like Jordan and Lebanon, who have historically tottered from one domestic crisis to another. Proximity to Europe and Israel can serve as a launching pad for attacks against both.
Though al-Qaida has established an outpost in Syria, there still remains time to deny the organization the opportunity to establish a permanent presence there. But to do so, Washington must take the reins and lead from the pole position.