• Obama Faces Public Pushback Over Syria Strike. Driven by a U.S. public opinion that skews heavily against a Syria strike, U.S. lawmakers have turned up the volume on their opposition. “I think that there’s a long way to go for the president to make the case, and it does seem as if there’s a high degree of concern and leaning no,” Representative Carol Shea-Porter, a New Hampshire Democrat, told the Los Angeles Times (Some Still Not Swayed on Syria Strike). Ranking members of Congress have shown more muscle in going against public opinion. Senate Intelligence Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat from California, told Politico she’s learned from her time in Congress that she may know better than her voters, given all the classified material she has seen. “I like to believe after 20 years, I have some skill at separating the wheat from the chaff,” she said.
The Obama administration says it feels good about the momentum in its campaign to convince Congress of its plans to strike. “We’re very pleased with the trend lines,” Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes said in the same piece. The Washington Post is running a helpful headcount on where members of Congress stand on Syria.”
U.S. opinion pages are full of arguments for and against a Syria strike, mostly based on what’s being called the “Iraq War Hangover” – the deep-seated aversion to getting engaging in another Arab conflict.
• Iran’s Leader Says U.S. Will “Definitely Suffer” for Syria Strike. In a speech on Thursday, reported by Iran’s PressTV, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the U.S. is “committing a folly and mistake in Syria and will accordingly take the blow” if it strikes the Assad regime. Khamenei has ultimate authority over Iran’s foreign policy and strategic decisions.
Iran is one of the most important backers of the Assad regime. It is heavily invested in its success and ready to support Syria “to the end,” according to Qassem Soleimani of Iran’s Qods Force. The U.S. has reportedly intercepted Iranian plans for a revenge attack, hitting U.S. targets in Iraq in the event of a U.S. strike on Syria. “Military officials have been trying to predict the range of possible responses from Syria, Iran and their allies,” according to the Wall Street Journal. “U.S. officials said they are on alert for Iran’s fleet of small, fast boats in the Persian Gulf, where American warships are positioned. U.S. officials also fear Hezbollah could attack the U.S. Embassy in Beirut.”
Two good think tank reports for understanding the alliance between Syria and Iran: Iranian Strategy in Syria, from the Institute for the Study of War, and U.S. and Iranian Competition in the Levant, by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
• G20, World Still Split on Syria Strike. The G20 meeting of world powers has become a diplomatic battleground as the U.S. and Russia compete in the court of global public opinion (the U.S. arguing for, Russia warning against a Syria strike). The White House says it’s confident it can win over other countries in support of a U.S. strike on Syria – Washington is hoping that half the G20 members will come on board, NBC reports. The biggest takeaway from the G20 Summit is what isn’t happening: so far, there is no sign that the U.S. and Russia will reconcile their positions. That means less hope for a political solution in Syria, at least for now. We’ll be looking for any revival of plans for Geneva II – the name for a second round of Syrian peace talks that were supposed to take place in Switzerland, but were then postponed indefinitely. Here’s some interesting analysis of the road to Geneva II, from regional newspaper Asharq al-Awsat.
Two leaders voicing concern over a Syria strike: UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon says a strike could worsen sectarian violence, while the Pope tweeted against military action, wrote to the Russians and planned a peace vigil for Saturday.
Suggested Reads from Our Editorial Team:
CNN: Syria’s Rebels: 20 Things You Need to Know
New York Times: Israel Backs Limited Strike Against Syria
The Guardian: China Joins Russia in Opposing Military Strikes
Wall Street Journal/Opinion: Inaction on Syria Strengthens Al Qaeda’s Hand
The Daily Beast: Syria’s Strange Bedfellows