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Executive Summary for October 22nd

To give you an overview of the latest news, we’ve organized the latest Syrian developments in a curated summary.

Published on Oct. 22, 2014 Read time Approx. 5 minutes

ISIS Reportedly Captures U.S.-Dropped Air Bundle of Military Supplies to Kobani

A video posted to YouTube by a media group affiliated with the Islamic State (ISIS) shows ISIS fighters in possession of one of the 28 bundles of military supplies airdropped to Kobani by U.S. planes on Sunday. The video shows ISIS fighters taking possession of boxes of hand grenades and rocket-propelled grenades.

The video was entitled, “Weapons and munitions dropped by American planes and landed in the areas controlled by the Islamic State in Kobani,” the Daily Beast reports. The article called it “a dangerous misfire in the American mission to speed aid to Kurdish forces making their stand in Kobani.”

Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said that the materiel shown in the video matches the supplies that were dropped by the U.S., “so it’s not out of the realm of possibility” that ISIS had indeed captured one of the bundles.

“We are very confident that the vast majority of the bundles did end up in the right hands,” Kirby said. “In fact, we’re only aware of one bundle that did not.”

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claims two bundles had fallen in ISIS-controlled territory. The Pentagon claims it destroyed one missing bundle in an airstrike. Experts are now analyzing the video to determine if the bundle was the one that had reportedly fallen into ISIS hands, or if there was a second one that went astray.

The incident comes alongside an ISIS offensive against Kurdish fighters in Kobani. Kurdish forces awaited reinforcements from the peshmerga, coming from Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

Syrian Air Force Intensifies Attacks on Rebel-Held Areas, Striking 200 Times in the Last 26 Hours

The Syrian air force has intensified airstrikes on rebel-held areas, carrying out more than 200 airstrikes around the country in the past 36 hours, Reuters reports.

The rapid increase in strikes by regime forces comes amid fears that the regime is benefitting from U.S.-led strikes on ISIS, using their cover to intensify attacks on the moderate opposition.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that this week’s attacks included barrel bombings that targeted areas in the east, north and west of the country, among them Hama, Daraa, Idlib, Aleppo, Quneitra and the Damascus countryside.

“Before the surge in Syrian air force raids, the military had carried out 12-20 raids a day,” according to the group.

The regime has scored a series of gains and offensive victories, while rebels combat both regime and ISIS forces. Analysts claim that Syrian rebels lack the organization and resources to fight those two battles effectively and at the same time.

According to analysts cited by Reuters, the intensified attacks could be an attempt by the Syrian military to weaken rebel groups before they get training and equipment promised by the U.S. and its allies. Washington has plainly stated that it is relying on moderate Syrian rebels to wage the ground war against ISIS; those moderate rebels are now taking a more intense beating from Assad’s army.

U.N. Warns That a Military Approach in Syria with No Political Solution Could Fuel Extremism

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon reaffirmed the need for a political solution to Syria’s crisis in an address to the U.N. Security Council. He warned that a purely military response – what we’re currently seeing, in absence of an effective negotiations track – could contribute to the radicalization of more armed Sunni groups.

“A purely military response to the vicious new threat posed by [ISIS] could ultimately contribute to the radicalization of other Sunni armed groups and spark a cycle of renewed violence,” said Ban.

“Our long-term strategic objective in Syria remains a political solution based on the Geneva Communique,” he said. That document set forth a way forward for political talks towards a political transition – a diplomatic track that has largely been inactive since. The Assad government has been reluctant to negotiate its own end, while the Syrian opposition has had trouble effectively coordinating its political position.

“In addition to the barbarity of [ISIS], the Syrian government continues to brutally and indiscriminately attack populated areas, including with barrel bombs,” he added.

In August the United Nations accused ISIS of committing war crimes, including amputations, public executions and sex slavery.

Earlier this month, Staffan de Mistura, U.N. special envoy to Syria, warned that an ISIS massacre of more than 10,000 people could be imminent if the international community allowed Kobani to fall.

Syrian Army Shrinks to Nearly Half Its Original Size, but Adapts to Guerilla Warfare

AFP reports that the Syrian army “has shrunk by nearly half since Syria’s conflict erupted in 2011.”

“Defections, desertions and attrition after three years of civil war saw Syria’s total manpower decline from a high of 325,000 in 2011 to 295,000 in 2012 to an estimated 178,000 in 2013 and 2014,” Aram Nerguizian, a military affairs expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies told AFP.

Despite the decrease size, experts claim that the remaining military force is now more flexible and capable, aided by sustained military support from Russia and Iran, “and the guerrilla warfare expertise of its ally, Lebanon’s Hezbollah.”

As a result, the remaining “100,000 to 150,000 loyal troops tested in battle over more than two years of fighting are arguably more lethal than a 300,000-strong Syrian military in 2010.”

The Syrian army has lost territory to opposition forces in Idlib, large parts of Aleppo and parts of the countryside in Damascus, Hassakeh and Deraa, but has recaptured significant territory this year, focusing its efforts on protecting the capital, Damascus.

ISIS controls an estimated 35% of Syrian terrain, including all areas of northern Raqqa province and a significant portion of the oil-rich eastern province of Deir Ezzor.

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Photo Credit: Courtesy of AP Images

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