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Executive Summary for February 15th

We review developments in Syria, including Russia continuing to bomb Syrian rebels despite its agreement to a cessation of hostilities, Turkey shelling Kurdish militants inside Syria for the second day in a row and Syrian army moves in Raqqa in efforts to pre-empt possible Saudi troop deployment.

Published on Feb. 15, 2016 Read time Approx. 4 minutes

Russia Will Continue Bombing Rebels, Says Prime Minister

In an exclusive interview with Time, Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev said Moscow will continue to bomb rebel positions in Syria until Bashar al-Assad’s government can reach a peace agreement on favorable terms.

Medvedev said that the Russian bombing offensive in Aleppo and other areas across the country would target any rebels “who run around with automatic weapons” – greatly expanding a bombing campaign that has ostensibly only been targeting militants connect with the Islamic State group (ISIS) and the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front.

The prime minister’s comments come just one day after top diplomats from Russia, the U.S. and 15 other countries agreed in Munich to end the hostilities in Syria. Medvedev’s statement on Saturday, however, leaves little room for hope that any peace deal will be implemented on the ground.

“They are all bandits and terrorists,” Medvedev said. “They move around amongst themselves for various reasons: They get paid more somewhere else, or somebody has a failing out with somebody else. So it is very difficult for us to tell the difference between the very moderate ones and the not-so-moderate ones, the good from the bad.”

Heavy Russian air raids in and around Aleppo have forced tens of thousands of civilians in Syria’s northernmost city to flee toward the Turkish border in recent weeks. When asked when the offensive would end, Medvedev told Time that the fighting would stop “when peace arrives,” but made clear that “[Assad] is not the one who will determine the extent of Russia’s military presence” in Syria.

Turkey Shells YPG Positions in Syria for Second Day

The Turkish army shelled positions held by U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish militants in northern Syria for the second day in a row on Sunday, the Associated Press reports.

Turkish state media reported that artillery units fired on positions held by the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in the Syrian town of Azaz in northern Aleppo, claiming it was in response to incoming Kurdish fire.

The cross-border shelling drew criticism from the Syrian government, whose forces are advancing in the same area.

Turkish troops have shelled YPG-held areas in Syria in the past. The YPG, Syria’s main Kurdish militia, has been the U.S.-backed coalition’s most effective ground partner in its war against ISIS. However, Ankara has been increasingly uneasy about recent YPG territorial gains along the border.

“Turkey has responded in this manner in the past,” said Turkish deputy prime minister Yalcin Akdogan. “What is different is not that Turkey has responded in such a way but the fact that there are different movements in the region. The YPG crossing west of the Euphrates is Turkey’s red line.”

Turkey views the YPG and its political affiliate, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), as the Syrian wing of its outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and fears future Syrian Kurdish gains will embolden PKK moves against the state in Turkey.

A coalition of primarily Syrian Kurdish militias, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, has gained control of a number of villages along the border with Turkey in recent months. Ankara fears the coalition could reach the opposition stronghold of Azaz, home to a major border crossing that has been held by rebels since 2012.

Syrian Army Looks to Raqqa Ahead of Potential Saudi Troop Deployment

Pro-government forces are ready to advance into the ISIS-held province of Raqqa for the first time since 2014, apparently in an attempt to head off any move by Saudi Arabia to send ground forces into Syria to fight the extremist group, Reuters reports.

A Syrian military source told Reuters the army had captured areas in the past two days along the provincial border between Raqqa and Hama and has intention to advance further.

“It is an indication of the direction of coming operations towards Raqqa. In general, the Raqqa front is open … starting in the direction of Tabqa,” the source said.

The source said the army had moved to within 20 miles (35km) of Tabqa, an air base captured by ISIS nearly two years ago.

Gulf states backing the Syrian opposition have said they would be willing to send in troops to fight as part of any U.S.-led ground attack against ISIS.

U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Friday he expected Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to send in troops to assist in recapturing Raqqa.

Saudi Arabia will soon begin launching air raids out of Turkey’s Incirlik air base to intensify its air support in the campaign against ISIS in Syria.

Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was quoted on Saturday as saying that “Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch an operation from the land” against ISIS, CBS News reports.

A senior Iranian military commander warned Saudi Arabia and Turkey on Sunday of getting more directly involved in Syria.

“We definitely won’t let the situation in Syria to go forward the way rebel countries want … We will take necessary actions in due time,” deputy chief of Staff Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri told Iran’s Arabic-language Al-Alam television.

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