Russia, U.S. Agree to Cease-Fire but Opposition Sees Flaws in Plan

The United States and Russia have announced plans for a partial cease-fire in Syria set to begin on Saturday February 27, but serious doubts remain as to whether a truce that excludes the Islamic State group (ISIS) and al-Nusra Front can work.

The agreement calls for President Bashar al-Assad and rebel forces to agree by noon on Friday to comply with a “cessation of hostilities” that would begin at midnight.

And while the leading Syrian opposition coalition – the Riyad-based High Negotiations Committee (HNC) – has given its conditional acceptance to the deal, there has been no word from Syrian government since the deal was announced late on Monday.

Russian president Vladimir Putin said Moscow would do “whatever is necessary” to ensure that Damascus respects the agreement.

“We are counting on the United States to do the same with its allies and the groups that it supports,” he said.

The plan allows the Syrian army and its allied militias, as well as Syrian rebel fighters, to respond with “proportionate use of force” in self defense, and also allows for further attacks, including airstrikes, against ISIS, al-Nusra and other insurgent groups.

And while ISIS control over territory is clearly visible and relatively stable, the al-Qaida affiliated al-Nusra Front works closely with many opposition groups.

“’Cessation of Hostilities’ allows attacks on Nusra. That likely dooms it, since Russia/regime tend to hit others & call em Nusra (or IS),” Noah Bonsey, a head analyst at the International Crisis Group, wrote on Twitter.

“To have any chance of addressing this, US/Russia must delineate Nusra areas BEFORE implementation.”

In an interview with Reuters, a political officer with the Free Syrian Army said the cease-fire agreement would provide cover for Assad and his Russian allies to continue attacks on opposition-held areas.

“Russia and the regime will target the areas of the revolutionaries on the pretext of the Nusra Front’s presence, and you know how mixed those areas are, and if this happens, the truce will collapse,” he said.

Khaled Khoja, a senior figure in the opposition, said it would be impossible to pinpoint positions held by al-Nusra Front.

“For us, al-Nusra is a problematic point, because al-Nusra is not only present in Idlib, but also in Aleppo, in Damascus and in the south. The critical issue here is that civilians or the Free Syrian Army could be targeted under the pretext of targeting al-Nusra,” he said.

Frederic Hof, a former State Department Syria specialist, said the proposed timeline gave Assad and his allies five more days to complete their encirclement of the rebel-held areas in Aleppo.

“Indeed, success of this initiative – including widespread humanitarian relief for Syrian civilians – requires good faith and decency by three parties who have shown little or none during the duration of the crisis,” he said. “Let’s hope they change their spots.”

‘Deliberate’ Destruction of Hospitals in Syria: U.N.

A report released by the United Nations on Monday charges ISIS and the Syrian government with the “deliberate destruction of health care infrastructure.”

The 31-page report, compiled by the United Nations Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, documents a series of attacks on medical centers and the denial to civilians of medical and emergency treatment.

The report accuses both Syrian government forces and their armed rivals of committing war crimes and highlights the role of international and regional stakeholders, now negotiating for a cease-fire, in fueling the violence, The New York Times reports.

“Paradoxically, the international and regional stakeholders that are ostensibly pushing for a peaceful solution to the war are the same that continue to feed the military escalation,” the report says, labeling the civil war in Syria “a proxy war steered from abroad.”

ISIS Cuts Supply Route to Government-Held Aleppo: Monitor

ISIS fighters and other jihadists on Monday cut a vital supply route linking the government-controlled areas of Aleppo with the surrounding provinces, Agence France-Presse reports.

If government-backed forces are unable to recapture the road connecting Aleppo to the town of Khanaser to the southeast, the only road linking western Aleppo with other government-controlled areas, it could slow the ongoing government offensive on rebel-held areas of Syria’s northernmost city.

If the road remains in the hands of ISIS, severe shortages of food and water for civilians in Aleppo’s government-held neighborhoods are likely to worsen.

“Jihadists from the Caucasus and from (China’s mainly Muslim region of) Xinjian, as well as the jihadist group Jund al-Aqsa, cut the route from the south after a surprise attack,” said Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

“And fighters from IS cut off a different part of the route from the northern side at the same time,” he said.

Recommended Reads

• Foreign Policy: Big-Power Meddling Casts Shadow Over Cease-Fire in Syria
• The Economist: The Peril of Inaction
• The Guardian: Ex-U.K. Student Clocks Up Air Miles on Mission to Rebrand Syrian Islamists
• Vox: Here Are America’s Five Best Options for Syria. They’re All Terrible.
• The Independent: The Untold Story of the Siege of Two Small Shia villages – and How the World Turned a Blind Eye
• The New York Times: A Turning Point for Syrian War, and U.S. Credibility

Top image: People gather to inspect the aftermath of multiple suicide attacks in the Sayyida Zeinab area of Damascus. (Associated Press)