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Executive Summary for March 15th

We review the key developments in Syria, including Vladimir Putin’s announcement on Monday that Russia will begin withdrawing its forces, an outlook on the Geneva peace talks as they enter their second day and a report detailing the 161 chemical weapons attacks that have taken place since the war began.

Published on March 15, 2016 Read time Approx. 3 minutes

Russia to Begin Withdrawing Forces

The Russian air force is preparing to withdraw from Syria after a surprise announcement by President Vladimir Putin on Monday.

Putin ordered the Defense Ministry on Monday night to withdraw the “main part” of the contingent of Russian forces, but did not provide specifics on a time frame or the number of troops and planes Moscow would extract. Russia has deployed about 50 warplanes and attack helicopters since it began its aerial campaign at the end of September.

The Russian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday its troops in Syria had begun packing equipment and making technical preparations for the withdrawal.

In a post on its website and its Facebook page, the ministry said technical staff at the Hmeimim air base in Latakia “began to prepare the aircraft for the long-range flights to the Russian Federation.”

Shortly after Putin’s announcement, Russian television broadcast pictures of soldiers loading equipment onto cargo planes, and on early Tuesday morning the Defense Ministry announced that the first batch of Russian fighter jets had left for Russia.

It’s not clear how many troops Russia has in Syria, but the Associated Press estimates the number to be between 3,000 and 6,000.

Analysts say the Russian withdrawal is not unexpected. Putin has largely accomplished his goals in Syria: shoring up the rule of Bashar al-Assad, preventing Western attempts at regime change, and reasserting Russia’s role as a major world power.

Peace Talks Enter Second Day

U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura is expected to hold his first official meeting with the opposition’s High Negotiations Committee (HNC) on Tuesday as the Syria peace talks in Geneva enter their second day.

Russia’s announcement that it will begin withdrawing its troops from Syria is expected to put more pressure on Assad to seriously negotiate during the Geneva talks.

“If the announcement of a withdrawal of Russian troops materializes, this increases the pressure on President Assad to finally negotiate in a serious way in Geneva a political transition which maintains the stability of the Syrian state and the interests of all populations,” German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told Agence France-Presse.

Russia’s ambassador to the U.N. Vitaly Churkin said Moscow’s move to withdraw its forces from Syria would boost the chances of a diplomatic solution to the conflict, which is now in its sixth year and has killed between 270,000 and 470,000 people and displaced millions.

U.S. officials offered a more reserved assessment of the Russian withdrawal. “At this point, we are going to see how things play out over the next few days,” a senior official told Agence France-Presse.

The HNC said it welcomed Moscow’s announcement, but would wait to see the impact on the ground.

“We must verify the nature of this decision and its meaning,” said spokesperson Salem al-Meslet in Geneva.

161 Chemical Weapons Attacks in Syria’s War

As the war in Syria enters its sixth year this month, a new report claims that chemical weapons have been used at least 161 times from the beginning of the conflict up until the end of 2015, killing 1,491 people, the Associated Press reports.

Compiled by the Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS), a U.S.-based nonprofit that supports some 1,700 health workers and more than 100 health centers in Syria, the report released on Monday is the most comprehensive record of chemical weapons attacks throughout the war.

The SAMS report notes that chemical attacks are on the rise, with at least 69 attacks in 2015 alone.

The group has called on the U.N. Security Council and the international community to identify those responsible for using chemical weapons and hold them accountable through the International Criminal Court and other means.

Recommended Reads

Top image: Russian president Vladimir Putin, left, shakes hands with Russian defense minister Sergey Shoygu during their meeting in the Kremlin at Moscow, Russia on Monday, March 14, 2016. Putin has ordered the start of a withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria. (Mikhail Klimentyev via AP)

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