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Executive Summary for March 18th

We review key developments in Syria, including the Kurdish declaration of an autonomous federation in the country’s north and its effects on the peace process, progress in Geneva between the Syrian opposition and U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura and Putin’s first public address post military drawdown.

Published on March 18, 2016 Read time Approx. 3 minutes

Kurds Declare Autonomous Federation in North

A leading Kurdish group Thursday declared the creation of an autonomous federation in northern Syria, complicating United Nations-led peace talks aimed at finding a political solution to the five-year-long civil war.

Entitled “Rojava – northern Syria,” the autonomous area declared by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) extends from the Jazira region in Hassakeh province down to Kurdish-controlled areas of Kobani and Afrin in Aleppo.

The three Kurdish-majority regions are not contiguous, but have been connected recently as Syrian Kurdish militias have captured territory from the Islamic State group in the north.

The declaration is unlikely to have any major effects on the ground – the area is already under Kurdish control. But any long-term efforts to establish an autonomous Kurdish presence along the Turkish border may be problematic both for the ongoing peace talks in Geneva and for Turkey.

The government in Damascus, the government in Ankara and the opposition’s High Negotiations Committee (HNC) all find the declaration problematic.

In Geneva, HNC negotiator George Sabra called the Kurds’ unilateral move toward federalism “illegitimate and unacceptable,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

Kurdish officials have said the move is not an attempt to separate from Syria, but to maintain autonomous control in a new federalized Syria.

“We will cooperate with all the institutions and factions that are present in this country because we are brothers and our makeup is one,” Kurdish political official Mansour Saloum told local media Thursday.

The government in Damascus said the Kurdish announcement had “no legal value” and would not have any “legal or political or social or economic effect,” and the HNC criticized it as, “a misadventure (that) is detrimental to the Kurdish cause and the Syrian cause in general.”

De Mistura Holds ‘Substantive’ Talks with HNC

U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura said he held “substantive” talks with the Syrian opposition Thursday on the creation of a unity government, despite the news of the Kurdish declaration of a federal region under their control in the country’s north.

De Mistura said the HNC presented clear proposals on a political transition to end the conflict in Syria.

“We were impressed by the depth of the preparation they had,” de Mistura told reporters in Geneva, AFP reports.

HNC delegate George Sabra said the opposition had presented a “formal proposal” outlining the specific powers of a transitional government.

When asked if the government was a trustworthy negotiating partner, HNC spokeswoman Bassma Kodmani said it was for the U.N. to decide.

“The partner on our side is there. The international community recognizes that,” she said.

A U.S. official told AFP by email that the HNC “are taking this seriously.”

De Mistura is set to meet with representatives of the Assad government again on Friday.

Russia Can Make Military Comeback in Hours: Putin

President Vladamir Putin said Thursday that Russia could build up its military presence in Syria within a few hours, saying the Russian air force would continue air raids throughout the country despite a partial withdrawal of forces ordered after military success.

“If necessary, literally within a few hours, Russia can build up its contingent in the region to a size proportionate to the situation developing there and use the entire arsenal of capabilities at our disposal,” Putin said at a military award ceremony, Reuters reports.

In his first public address since ordering the withdrawal, Putin said the strike force he had left in Syria was strong enough to allow pro-government forces to continue their advances.

“I’m sure that we will see new and serious successes in the near future,” Putin said, saying he hoped forces loyal to Assad would soon retake the ancient city of Palmyra.

Putin said the approximate cost of Russian military operations in Syria so far was $481.89 million.

Russian airstrikes on the Islamic State group (ISIS), the al-Qaida linked al-Nusra Front and other “terrorist” groups are set to continue, Putin said, in addition to a range of other measures designed to aid pro-government forces, including the planning of offensives.

Recommended Reads

Top image: Mohamed Alloush, of Jaish al-Islam, Asaad al-Zoubi and George Sabra, of the opposition’s High Negotiations Committee (HNC), on the left, attend a meeting with U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura in Geneva on Thursday, March 17, 2016. (Associated Press)

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