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Executive Summary for March 22nd

We review the key developments in Syria, including Staffan de Mistura’s push to force both sides in Geneva to discuss the fate of Assad, Russia’s warning that it will unilaterally respond by force to cease-fire violators and the continued push by pro-government forces to retake ISIS-controlled Palmyra.

Published on March 22, 2016 Read time Approx. 4 minutes

Peace Talks Push Toward the Assad Question

Government and opposition delegations in Geneva are coming under increasing pressure to discuss the fate of President Bashar al-Assad.

U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura, reassured by Russian and U.S. pressure to bring the two sides to the negotiating table, has refused to drop what he has called “the mother of all issues.”

One week into the resumed peace talks in Geneva, de Mistura praised the depth of the opposition’s proposals, but criticized the government’s seasoned diplomats for not focusing on serious issues.

“The government is currently focusing very much on principles, which are necessary in any type of common ground on the transition,” he said. “But I hope next week, and I have been saying so to them, that we will get their opinion, their details on how they see the political transition taking place.”

Syrian government head negotiator Bashar Ja’afari on Monday submitted to de Mistura a document entitled “Basic elements for a political solution,” saying that the approval of the submitted principles would open a “serious dialogue with the Syrian leadership.”

Diplomats and officials involved in the talks have called the document “very thin,” “bland” and “off the point.”

De Mistura said he had pressured Damascus to lay out its plans for political transition, including the fate of Assad. The envoy said Ja’afari told him “it was… premature to talk about it. My message was (that) premature (for him) means imminent as far as we are concerned.”

Russia Warns of Unilateral Action Against Cease-fire Violators

Russia warned on Monday that it was prepared to begin responding unilaterally to cease-fire violation if the United States refuses to coordinate the rules of engagement against those who breach the partial truce, the Associated Press reports.

Russian military officials have accused the U.S. of delaying its response to the Kremlin’s proposals on rules for a joint monitoring of the cease-fire and responses to violations.

If the U.S. fails to respond to Moscow’s proposal, Lt. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi said in a statement on Monday, the Russian military will be forced to unilaterally begin using force against those who breach the cease-fire.

U.S. State Department spokesperson John Kirby said Washington and Moscow were working together to gather and analyze all information about truce violations, but that any unilateral action to punish violators would go against “the spirit of the cessation of hostilities.”

Kirby told reporters “there has been coordination,” and that matters “continue to be discussed in a constructive manner,” although no actions have been taken against transgressors.

“Our expectation is that Russia will refrain from unilateral actions,” Kirby said, adding there was “no reason for anybody to say that there needs to be unilateral action taken.”

Syrian Army Pushes Toward ISIS-held Palmyra

Ground fighting raged on the outskirts of Palmyra on Monday, as pro-government forces backed by Russian fighter jets pushed to retake the ancient city from the so-called Islamic State group (ISIS).

Syrian army troops and allied militias have been waging an offensive since early March to retake the city.

According to reports from the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, they are now just 2mi (3km) west of the city.

The Observatory said on Monday that ISIS militants had killed 26 Syrian soldiers, after days of advances by pro-government forces backed by Russian air power, Reuters reports. The death toll could not be independently verified.

The Observatory has said that government advances in the area have been “slow” despite nearly 800 Syrian and Russian airstrikes over the past month alone.

Last week, pro-government forces retook a strategic hill southwest of the entrance to Palmyra, some 2.5mi (4km) outside of the city.

“The battle for Palmyra is decisive for the regime,” said the Observatory’s director Rami Abdulrahman, “as it paves the way for the recapture of the desert area all the way up to the eastern border of Iraq.”

IS would automatically lose the desert stretching from Palmyra to the Iraqi border – in other words, 30,000 square kilometers (12,000 square miles),” he said.

The capture of territory would cut ISIS’s area of control from nearly 40 percent of Syrian territory to about 30 percent.

Recommended Reads

Top image: U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura, right, listens to Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy, left, at the opening of a new round peace talks in Geneva on Monday, March 21, 2016. (Fabrice Coffrini/AP Photo)

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