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Executive Summary for May 4th

We review the key developments in Syria, including a major rebel assault on government-controlled areas of Aleppo as diplomats in Geneva push to extend the cease-fire to the city, the expansion of a U.S.-Russia cease-fire monitor, and new warnings from Kerry to Assad.

Published on May 4, 2016 Read time Approx. 3 minutes

Rebel Assault Hits Hospital as Diplomats Try to Revive Cease-Fire

An assault by Syrian rebels on government-held areas of Aleppo killed as many as 19 people on Tuesday. The attacks, which included a deadly rocket strike on a hospital, took place while foreign diplomats in Geneva pushed to find ways to breathe life back into a dying cease-fire.

“Scores” of people were killed or injured in rebel shelling of Aleppo’s western, government-held neighborhoods, including three women who were killed after a rebel rocket hit close to a maternity clinic at the al-Dabit hospital, according to the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

The shell reportedly struck the fuel tank of a Syrian army vehicle close to the hospital, which subsequently exploded, badly damaging the building, the Guardian reported.

It was not immediately clear which group led Tuesday’s assault, but Syrian military officials blamed the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front.

The rebel attack comes on the heels of heavy government airstrikes on rebel-held areas of the divided city over the past week. These included one assault that hit a hospital supported by the global charity Doctors Without Borders, which killed 55 civilians.

United Nations envoy Staffan de Mistura, who met U.S. secretary of state John Kerry in Geneva on Monday and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Tuesday, told Reuters he hoped to extend a countrywide truce to Aleppo as soon as possible.

“We all hope that … in a few hours we can re-launch the cessation of hostilities. If we can do this, we will be back on the right track.”

De Mistura added that if the truce were to be extended to Aleppo, peace talks in Geneva could resume.

U.S. and Russia to Establish Joint 24-Hour Cease-Fire Monitor

Russia and the U.S. will expand a joint Syria cease-fire monitoring and enforcement operation base out of the U.N. in Geneva.

Military officials from both countries will work together 24 hours a day in the hope of saving a quickly collapsing truce, John Kerry said Tuesday.

Under the new arrangement, which could be finalized as soon as Wednesday, lines will be drawn in the city of Aleppo and its surrounding rural areas to prevent further incursions or attacks from any of the warring parties.

“If [Syrian president Bashar al-] Assad’s strategy is to somehow think he’s going to carve out Aleppo … I’ve got news for him,” Kerry told reporters at the State Department.

Washington and Moscow have allegedly been monitoring the cease-fire since it came into place in February, but in different countries and with infrequent in-person meetings.

The new coordination center in Geneva will allow Russia and its U.S. counterparts to sit at the same table, Lavrov said Tuesday at a conference in Moscow with de Mistura.

“They will be looking at the same maps. They will be analyzing proposals and they will work together to make sure that any violations are nipped in the bud.”

Kerry acknowledged that they were still trying to decide how to deal with al-Nusra Front, whose militants are excluded from the cease-fire but who often fight alongside other rebel forces around Aleppo.

“Are they somehow comingled? Are they fair game? These are the kinds of things that have to be worked out, so that there’s no misunderstanding [about] who is doing what, where, when and how,” he said.

Kerry Warns Assad of ‘Repercussions’ If Truce and Transition Fail

John Kerry warned embattled Syrian president Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday of “repercussions” if he refuses to cooperate with the cessation of hostilities brokered by the U.S. and Russia and move forward with a political transition to end Syria’s war.

“If Assad does not adhere to this, there will clearly be repercussions, and one of them may be the total destruction of the cease-fire and then go back to war,” Kerry told reporters after an emergency meeting in Geneva, Reuters reported.

“I don’t think Russia wants that. I don’t think Assad is going to benefit from that. There may even be other repercussions being discussed.”

Kerry went on to repeat that the U.S. would never accept a transition that included Assad.

“If Assad’s strategy is to somehow think he’s going to just carve out Aleppo and carve out a section of the country, I got news for you and him – this war doesn’t end,” he said.

“It is physically impossible for Assad to just carve out an area and pretend he is somehow going to make it safe while the underlying issues are unresolved in this war.”

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