World Powers’ Syria Talks to Focus on Truce, Aid

Syria talks on Tuesday in Vienna will aim to restore the faltering truce and facilitate delivery of aid in besieged areas, Germany’s foreign minister said on May 17.

“We must find a way back into the political process,” Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in a press conference. “It’s about improving the conditions for the cease-fire and humanitarian aid so as to win the opposition over to negotiate with the regime in Geneva.”

Steinmeier spoke with journalists before the International Syria Support Group’s 17 members – including the E.U., the U.S., Russia, Iran and the Arab League – began talks in Vienna on Tuesday.

The truce they are seeking to restore was brokered in February by the U.S. and Russia, but fell apart when the leading opposition delegation left the negotiations in Geneva after a surge in violence in rebel-controlled parts of Aleppo last month.

The opposition’s High Negotiations Committee said it would not resume talks until there is tangible progress regarding the delivery of humanitarian aid to besieged communities across the country.

“We’ll need to see the guarantors of the cease-fire – Russia and the U.S. – putting something down that will really convince the opposition that this process is worthwhile,” a senior Western diplomat involved in the talks told Reuters.

“Sadly, I don’t sense that and fear the U.S. will try to impose a text that is excessively optimistic, but for which its implementation will not be possible.”

Rebels Fear Assault on Starving Daraya

Rebel groups and officials in the besieged Damascus suburb of Daraya are expecting government forces to launch a large-scale assault after blocking the first ever aid delivery last week.

Daraya witnessed relative calm after the implementation of the U.S.-Russia-brokered truce in February. But with the truce steadily collapsing across the country, pro-government forces on Thursday resumed sporadic shelling of the area.

Rebel forces and officials in the area told Reuters they fear the resumption of shelling could be in preparation for a large-scale assault.

“Large convoys of [government] troops are moving from the airport and from Ashrafiyat Sahnaya [the next town south],” said Abu Samer, spokesman for the Liwa Shuhada al-Islam rebel group.

“We are prepared to repel their assault, but our main fear is for the civilians besieged in the town who face severe shortages of food.”

A Syrian military source denied the rebel speculations of troop deployments, saying nothing had changed in the area.

“Our monitoring showed there were heavy vehicle deployments on the southern edge of the city,” said the Liwa Shuhada al-Islam head, Colonel Said Naqrash.

“The regime is continuing to pour in more equipment, fighters … All these movements indicate that the regime is planning something.”

Daraya is controlled by two moderate rebel groups, Liwa Shuhada al-Islam and Itihad al-Islami Ajnad al-Sham. Residents and rebels denied any radical Islamic presence in the area.

“The Free Syrian Army is abiding by the cease-fire and only repelling attacks,” said Daraya activist Fadi Dirani.

Dayara has been under a tight government siege since 2012, and not a single aid convoy has been allowed into the area since then.

Last week, the first aid delivery was set to enter the area, but government forces blocked it.

The area is home to 8,000 civilians who are facing severe shortage of food and medicine.

ISIS Losing Strength: Coalition

The so-called Islamic State group (ISIS) has killed more than 115 people in Iraq in the past week, but is showing signs of losing strength according to the U.S. special envoy for the global coalition against ISIS.

“ISIS [is] returning to suicide bombings,” special envoy Brett McGurk said. “It relies on suicide attacks for very spectacular headlines and it’s not hard to have a person strap on a suicide vest and walk into a market and blow himself up.”

“Now this perverse caliphate is shrinking so they are very much on the defensive,” he said. “Their territory is shrinking, and they are now doing these barbaric suicide attacks against the civilian populations.”

Even though the group’s recent attacks could indicate otherwise, ISIS seems to be losing significant ground in Iraq and Syria, compared to its gains in 2014.

Analysts attribute the new change in tactics to a loss of land.

“ISIS has receded somewhat militarily; they don’t have a standing army to hold territory,” political risk analyst Kirk Sowell told CNN last week. “But what they’re good at, unfortunately, is these terrorist attacks against soft targets.”

The group has also shown signs of panic over the potential loss of its stronghold Raqqa, Syria, especially if it comes under siege or is forced to retreat by steadily advancing Kurdish militias.

Recommended Reads:

• Al-Monitor: What’s Next for Hezbollah in Syria?
• The New York Times: Legacy of a Secret Pact Haunts Efforts to End War in Syria
• The Nation: Why Is Washington Supporting Fundamentalist Jihadis in Syria?
• The Guardian: Kerry and Lavrov Chair Vienna Meeting Aimed at Kickstarting Syria Peace Effort
• The New York Times: ISIS Crimes of Genocide