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Executive Summary for June 9th

We review the key developments in Syria, including the withdrawal of ISIS from Marea, a State Department request for Russia to use its air power to deliver aid and a recent report detailing the prospective long-term damage to Syria’s economy after five years of war.

Published on June 9, 2016 Read time Approx. 3 minutes

ISIS Withdraws From Marea

Rebel forces drove out ISIS fighters from the rebel-held town of Marea in northern Aleppo on Wednesday, following a counter-attack that forced the Islamist fighters to withdraw from the front lines.

According to the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the group’s withdrawal is evidence of mounting pressure against the so-called Islamic State from all sides.

Marea was besieged by ISIS in late May, turning the area into a battlefield between the extremist group and Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels.

Fearing the town would soon surrender to ISIS, the U.S.-led coalition airdropped weapons to the rebels last week.

Rebels broke the siege on Wednesday after they took the village of Kafr Kalbin, which is sited on the road linking Marea with the strategic town of Azaz along the Turkish border, Reuters reported.

“It seems they (ISIS) can’t keep several fronts open at the same time. It is a strategic area, they were on the verge of entering Azaz,” Observatory director Rami Abdulrahman said.

State Department: Russia Must Use Leverage to Distribute Aid

The U.S. State Department urged Russia on Wednesday to use its leverage on Assad’s government to deliver humanitarian aid by air into besieged communities across the country.

“Russia actually has air assets on the ground in Syria, and ostensibly has the permission of the Syrian government to fly,” department spokesperson Mark Toner said.

Toner expressed his disappointment at Russia’s lack of action in taking any “demonstrable steps” to support the International Syria Support Group’s (ISSG) plans to airdrop aid by June 1, Voice of America reported.

“We are looking to Russia to exert the influence that it claims to have on the Assad regime,” he said.

The World Food Program has been trying to find ways to implement the ISSG’s plans to airdrop aid to besieged communities, but said the plan would require Assad’s permission.

U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujjaric said on Wednesday the Syrian regime had granted the U.N. access to deliver aid to 15 of the 17 besieged areas.

Syrian War Has Damaged Economy for ‘Years to Come’

The damage the five-year war in Syria has done to human capital and infrastructure could stifle the country’s economy for years to come, according to a new report.

The report released by BMI research predicts the Syrian economy will contract by an average of 3.9 percent annually from 2016 to 2019, which would reduce the war-ridden economy to the size it was back in the 1990s.

“Large-scale destruction amid the protraction of the current civil war will continue to damage the Syrian economy over the coming decade,” the BMI team said in the report.

“We project a return to growth only in 2020, mostly reflecting low base effects and the influx of external funding, including humanitarian aid, and investment from Russia and Iran,” they said.

“Syria will become increasingly reliant on external assistance, especially from Iran and Russia, amid the depletion of government resources.”

According to the report, Syria’s exports lost 80 percent of their real value from 2010 to 2015.

“We do not forecast a recovery in exports before 2021, as transportation infrastructure will take time to rebuild,” the team said.

BMI is a research team that provides macroeconomic, industry and financial market analysis.

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