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Executive Summary for August 1st

We review the key developments in Syria including a rebel campaign to break the government’s siege on eastern Aleppo, the Syrian Democratic Forces taking control of most of Manbij and the head of the CIA publicly admitting Syria may be partitioned.

Published on Aug. 1, 2016 Read time Approx. 3 minutes

Rebel Alliance Launches Offensive to Break Aleppo Siege

A rebel alliance has launched an offensive in Aleppo, in an attempt to break the siege on opposition-held areas there, Al-Jazeera reported.

Nearly 300,000 people are trapped in the eastern part of the city after a Russian-backed government advance earlier in July cut off the last rebel supply route out of the city, Castello Road.

The alliance includes Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, as well as Ahrar al-Sham. Ahrar al-Sham reported that it had taken positions from the government army in the south-western parts of the city. Syrian state media confirmed the rebel offensive, but denied a rebel capture of the Hikma school, and said the army had pushed the rebels away from an air force artillery base.

Rebels and government forces are fighting in several locations on the outskirts of Aleppo city, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Over the weekend, state media reported civilians boarding buses outside of eastern Aleppo towards temporary shelters, and the BBC reported some fighters surrendering to government forces. In a move criticized by the Syrian opposition, Russia had earlier announced that it would open four humanitarian corridors out of the rebel-held parts of the city.

“These corridors are not for getting aid in, but driving people out,” said Basma Kodmani, a member of the opposition High Negotiations Committee.

The U.N., which had earlier warned of the critical situation in rebel-held Aleppo, said they should run the proposed corridors, and called again for a 48-hour truce to allow people to leave safely.

On Sunday, residents of rebel-held Aleppo burned tires to create a “smoke curtain,” in an attempt to stop airstrikes on the war-torn city, activists said.

Syrian Democratic Forces Take Control of Majority of Manbij

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) told Reuters on Sunday that they had taken control of 70 percent of Manbij town in northern Syria.

The U.S.-backed Kurdish and Arab alliance reportedly has control of the majority of the town, with so-called Islamic State (ISIS) militants controlling mainly the old parts of the city and the northeastern sector.

U.S. special forces backed an SDF offensive on Manbij almost two months ago to take away the only remaining ISIS territory on the Syrian-Turkish border.

Thousands of civilians are still trapped in Manbij, while 2,300 have escaped. ISIS have reportedly obstructed civilians from leaving, and have planted mines and used snipers to disrupt the SDF campaign.

Local residents and activists have protested dozens of reported civilian deaths due to U.S.-led coalition airstrikes last month. The Pentagon has launched a formal investigation into civilian casualties in Manbij.

Head of CIA Doubts Syria Will Remain One Country

Head of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, John Brennan, said Friday that he is not hopeful of Syria remaining one country in the future, Al-Jazeera reported.

Speaking at the annual Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, Brennan said, “There’s been so much blood spilled, I don’t know if we’re going to be able to get back to [a unified Syria] in my lifetime.”

Similar fears have been expressed by officials previously. In February, U.S. secretary of state John Kerry mentioned a “Plan B,” which included partitioning Syria, in case a ceasefire did not succeed. Staffan de Mistura, U.N. special envoy to Syria, spoke of a federal division of the country as an option a few weeks later.

The Syrian opposition has rejected federalism in a statement from the opposition High Negotiation Committee’s coordinator, Riad Hijab, in March.

Also in March, however, the Syrian Kurdish PYD party and allied groups announced their plans to build an autonomous federation.

In June, President Bashar Assad vowed to “liberate every inch” of Syria from rebel forces.

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